ИСТИНА

The MSU Elbrus station is located on the northern slope of the Central Caucasus (43018 'N, 42028' E) at the foot of Mount Elbrus, at Azau glade, altitude of 2326 m, in the upper valley of Baksan river. In the winter of 1967-68, stationary observations of snow cover, avalanche activity and the aggregate of meteorological elements commenced at the Elbrus station under the guidance of prof. G.K.Tushinsky, the founder of the station. Many years of research resulted in a unique database of avalanches and snow cover. The results included large-scale maps of avalanche danger, determination of the regularities of the structure and properties of snow cover on the slopes, identification of the quantitative criteria of different genetic types of avalanches, and proposed protection measures against avalanches and snow-air flows. Over the past two decades research revealed the geographical regularities of the mountainous glacio-nival systems’ reaction to the impact of a rapidly changing climate. At the same time, a particularly close attention was given to the snowfall and avalanche activity which are directly affected by the ambient temperature fluctuations. Also, to assess the avalanche danger during winters, a methodical approach was developed based on the key avalanche-forming factors. While defining types of winters, parameters were used similar to those as in the computational climate modelling (ambient temperature and precipitations), ratio of which defines the different types of snowiness. Whilst defining the types of winters, an important role is given to the seasonal extremes, which are considered as the closest analogs of either a colder or warmer climate as in comparison to the modern climate. Such an approach allows broadening the existing ideas about the links between climate and avalanche activity, and creates a new way to solving the urgent problem of forecasting avalanches and reconstructing the risks associated with avalanche activity. The last decades of the twentieth century were marked by an increased number of anomaly snowy winters with a high number of especially large avalanches. At the beginning of the twenty first century, the tendency was for higher ambient temperatures in the winter months with a decreasing snowiness and lower avalanche activity. Currently the Elbrus station is one of the few stationary bases in the Caucasus where the avalanche research is carried out following the single method for over 40 years aiming at solving problems of avalanche danger to the population and holidaymakers.