ИСТИНА

Extreme events, in particular extreme precipitation, present natural hazards for population and result in immense losses for economic. The special attention may be drawn to the coastal zones, where intensive economic use of territory increases the losses resulting from inundation. The climate change involves the change of specific components of climate system, in particular the precipitation amount. However the trends of annual precipitation are not always consistent with the changes of extreme precipitation occurrence, the latter being the most dangerous for population. As the rainfall (especially extreme) are fairly simulated by the climate models an alternative method for assessment of extreme precipitation changes is used, based on the analysis of large-scale synoptical indicators associated with extreme rainfalls. For Black Sea coastal area and European Arctic coast the certain meteorological conditions resulting in extreme precipitation are detected: specific configuration of the pressure field, formation of intensive frontal zone in the area of extreme rainfall. The latter is specified in dependence of region: for Black Sea coastal region the threshold is the strong temperature gradient at 850 hPa, for European Arctic coast area the threshold for the frontal parameter is applied. The analysis of synoptical indicators of precipitation in the warming climate of XXI century allows to estimate the changes of extreme precipitation occurrence: in the Black sea region the increasing of extreme precipitation is attended in summer, while on the Arctic seaside the probability of extreme precipitation increases in the cold season.