ИСТИНА

Significant climate change rates in Moscow, capital of Russia and the biggest city in Europe, are caused as by global climate change, which is especially rapid within East-European plain (IPCC, 2013) and also by intensive urban growth rates (population of Moscow has increased from 9 to 12 million people during last twenty years), which leads to intensification of urban heat island effect. Prospects of further climate change and urban grows requires better understanding, how this changes will affect local climate and life quality conditions in case of one or another scenarios of further development, which is really important for choosing optimal urban planning solutions and mitigation negative effects of climate change. Instrument, available for preparing detailed climatic forecast with taking into consideration urban influence and different scenarios of city development, is required for solving this problem. In this study we attempted to use regional COSMO-CLM model, coupled with TEB urban scheme (Masson, 2000, Trusilova et. al., 2013), where some new modifications were implemented. Urban surface parameters, required for urban scheme, were calculated from free OpenStreetMap (OSM) data. Model sensitivity to different options of COSMO-CLM model itself, TEB urban scheme options and modifications and surface parameters was investigated with several model experiments for modern climate (with ERA-Interim reanalysis and CMIP-5 historical simulations uses as boundary conditions for regional model). This allows finding optimal model configuration and making its validation for modern climate. Simulations for future climate were launched with boundary conditions from CMIP-5 simulations according RCP8.5 scenario and different scenarios of city development. 1. IPCC (2013), IPCC Fifth Assessment Report: Climate Change 2013 (AR5) Rep.,Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 2. Masson V. A Physically-Based Scheme for the Urban Energy Budget in Atmospheric models// Bound. Layer Meteor. 2000. V. 94 (3). P. 357-397. 3. Trusilova K., Früh B., Brienen S., Walter A., Masson V., Pigeon G., Becker P. Implementation of an Urban Parameterization Scheme into the Regional Climate Model COSMO-CLM. J. Appl. Meteor. Climatol., 52, 2296–2311.