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This article is devoted to the description of the forecasting model of passenger traffic of new urban rail lines. It is a question of new through railway routes, which will be organized in Moscow. They will pass through the city, connecting together the stations located in the suburbs. The schedule of such trains, comfort, and pricing policy will undoubtedly make them a popular transportation tool that will compete with the Moscow metro. This popularity will result in an increase in passenger traffic on existing fragments of these railway lines, the assessment of which is the task considered in this article. The article looks at the existing methods of measuring passenger traffic, and suggests a model for assessing its possible change.