ИСТИНА

On the European Russia territory within 50-60˚ NL meteorological data confirm an increase in the average annual temperature in the 20th century by 1-1.5˚С, accompanying with increased summer precipitation. During the warm trend period (1970-2015) studied by the authors climatic parameters changes even more: the average annual air temperature increased by 1.5-2˚С in the Central and Southern Non-chernozem regions. A clear relationship between the growth temperature and the average cereals yield has been revealed: the correlation coefficient in some regions was 0.6-0.75. At the same time, the climatic trend favorable for land productivity coincided with a large-scale reduction in arable areas, due to economic reasons, especially in forest Non-chernozem and in the South-Eastern arid regions. During 1990-2015 total sown areas in the Non-Chernozem zone reduced by more than half: from 28.8 to 13.3 mln ha, cereal crops - from 13.4 to 7.3 mln ha; in European Russia, arable lands decreased by 33%, from 87.0 to 59.0 mln ha in total. In fact, because of climate changes the natural zones shifted to the north in the central regions of the European Russia. Thus, the maximum increments of the normal grain crops yield during the warm trend period are observed in the agrolandscapes of forest-steppe, deciduous forests and the southern coniferous-deciduous forests (Bryansk, Kaluga, Voronezh, Oryol, Tula, Ryazan, Tambov regions, Mordovia, Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, etc.). In these regions, yield increases from 50 to 100%. At the same time, in these regions, about 16 mln ha of arable land dropped out of circulation. In the traditionally grain-producing steppe agrolandscapes (Kuban, Rostov, Belgorod, Volgograd, Stavropol regions) yield increments are lower due to higher previous baseline yields and conflicting climate changes. Sustainable agricultural land use implies agrolandscapes adaptation to climate changes. This is the optimization of the land use, crop structure, returning abandoned lands, or the natural development of post-agrarian lands. In general, it is necessary to advance commercial crop production to the north; in particular, the expansion of grain crops within zones of deciduous and coniferous-deciduous forests due to returning lands. In steppe agrolandscapes, where the land and natural soil fertility potential has been exhausted, it is advisable to increase the perennial grasses area. In dry steppe and steppe regions, where climate warming results in aridization, it is advisable to increase the proportion of pastures with natural steppe vegetation. In the northern Non-Chernozem agrolandscapes with the maximum land reduction, it is advisable to return only the best lands. Large areas will inevitably remain in the natural post-agrarian stage. For these regions, the decline in agrotechnical level and the poor quality soils are not compensated by climate warming. In general, climate warming in European Russia is a favorable background for sustainable land use, restoration of abandoned lands and rural development.