ИСТИНА

We present the study on assessment of the potential suitability of the Arctic territories of the Russian Federation to re-emergence of anthrax in humans and animals due to re-activation of preserved soil foci under the current climate as well as for the projected climate by 2100. The study is based on the assumption that the existing locations of anthrax burial sites may be treated as indicators of favorable environmental conditions for anthrax pathogen survival and, hence, all areas with a similar set of environmental parameters may be detected and categorized as potentially dangerous. We used the data on anthrax burial sites in Arctic region the Russia (N = 357) for 1882 – 2016 collected from publications of the Ministry of Agriculture. For modelling, a method from a category of Environmental Niche Modeling methods was applied, namely “a modeling algorithm with maximum entropy principle-based optimization” (or just MaxEnt). A number of environmental factors, such as soil type and pH, altitude above sea level, vegetation cover type and a set of climatic parameters were used as input explanatory factors. Maxent model demonstrated a good predictive ability (AUC = 0.969). A map was created that shows the most suitable areas for anthrax re-emergence in the south of Arkhangelsk oblast and Republic of Karelia, north of Murmansk oblast, south of Krasnoyarsk krai and central parts of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The following variables were found to most contribute into the model demonstrating good correspondence to the findings of previous studies: soil pH, annual mean temperature, soil type, vegetation cover type, annual precipitation at temperatures below 0°C and maximum average daily air temperature. Using the set of climate variables projected with CMIP5 climate models ensemble until 2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario we obtained a suitability map for future climate that suggests a dramatic increase of suitability over the whole study area. A particularly strong rise of suitability can be noted at the Yamal peninsula and along coastal areas of Yamal-Nenets autonomous district, Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Chukotka autonomous district. The results of our study attract attention to the expected elevation of anthrax burials re-activation risks due to thawing permafrost that requires enhanced surveillance measures and proper containment of registered burial sites.