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The article examines the historical concept of the "Philosophy of chance" which is important from the writer's perspective, and was formulated by Mark Aleksandrovich Aldanov in his later work - the treatise "Ulm Night"; however, the main ideas of this philosophy were actualized in all of Aldanov's historical novels and became an indicator of his attitude to the laws of history. Being an adherent of Leo Tolstoy, Aldanov does not follow his concept of the "historical necessity", verbalized in the works of his great predecessor; although in Aldanov’s works one can clearly hear the echoes of the fatalistic concept which regulates the laws of history and embodies the divine justice. However, the ideas of providentialism are also alien to the writer.