ИСТИНА

For assessing the vulnerability of the population to climate change the spatial unevenness of warming and its natural consequences, as well as the development and settlement pattern of the territory should be taken into account. A differentiated approach is necessary not only at the global level, but also within large countries. Russian regions and municipalities differ dramatically in the degree of vulnerability to shocks and risks associated with climate change and global climate policy as a response to the change. Large-scale macroregional shifts in population distribution over the last 30 years, increasing building density in a few urban and metropolitan areas occur along with increasing frequency of climatic hazards and changes in climate favorability in different parts of the country. The authors’ methodology includes the search and processing of retrospective, current and forecast (scenario) climatic and socio-demographic parameters and their timespatial harmonization and comparison. This technique allows us to obtain quantitative estimates of the distribution and dynamics of the population on the territory of Russia, taking into account climate change and the transformation of settlement pattern. At this stage, the distribution of the population of Russia in the second half of the 20 – beginning of the 21 century by zones of climatic comfort is estimated. The results of the assessment can be used by federal and regional governance, namely, determining priority areas to prevent unfavorable climatic impact on population.