ИСТИНА

The modern-day climate warming in the Arctic has affected the state of permafrost and active layer and, consequently, the facilities constructed in frozen ground including ice cellars - a natural means of preserving food in conditions of transport isolation and total energy dependence on imported fuel. Modeling of thermal regime of permafrost soils around underground storages facilities plays an important role in the preservation of ice cellars, since this allows us to assess the impact of predicted climate changes and the effectiveness of various preventive measures to maintain the stability of ice cellars. In this investigation, we made an effort to simulate and predict the thermal regime of permafrost around the ice cellar, located in the community of Lorino, Chukchi Peninsula, NE Russia. Numerical simulation allowed to predict that the climate-induced changes of thermal state of permafrost around the ice cellar will result in noticeable but not critical changes in soil temperature for stability of the facility by the middle of the 21st century. The mean annual ground temperature will increase by no more than 1.0°C, whereas the maximal depth of seasonal thawing of the soil above the storage facility will increase on 1.2 to 2.5 m. In addition to predicting the dynamic of the thermal regime of permafrost soils due to climatic changes, an assessment of measures to manage the permafrost conditions was conducted.