ИСТИНА

Since the mid-1990s, rural shrinkage is a notable and stable process in Central Russia both due to the natural population decline and out-migration. While large rural settlements, especially in the southern part of Central Russia, as well as those in the proximity to major urban centers are shrinking to a lesser extent, many of small villages on the periphery of the so-called Nonchernozem regions (located to the north of Moscow) have lost a significant share or even all population. However, studies on rural development in Russia repeatedly note the inadequacy of offical population number estimates, especially at the level of separate settlements, both in the censuses and in the current account, leaving researchers to argue whether those estimates are exaggerated or understated (Mkrtchyan, 2010; Molyarenko, 2014). At the same time, depoulating rural settlements with vacant housing often attract recreants who buy second homes (dachas) there; thereby, doubling or even tripling the population in those settlements during the warm seasons (Nefedova, 2013; Nefedova & Averkieva, 2016). Such seasonal fluctuation of population complicates population number estimates even further, since second home owners who seasonally reside in rural settlements are not accounted for in the official statistics, while second home settlements are not recognized as “official” ones (Gunko & Medvedev, 2016). The aim of the research is to jointly analyze the two processes – depopulation and second homes expansion - in rural settlements identifying their “zones of contact” and to provide an algorithm for more accurate estimates of the present population. For the purpose remote sensing and statistical data are jointly used - mosaics of multi-temporal images, official statistical data of the Federal statistical agency, publicly available inventory data, large-scale topographic maps. The data are processed with GIS technologies, in particular, spatial and geostatistical analysis. Based on satellite images and associated data of public services, second home settlements and depopulating villages are identified and converted to GIS layers collected in a single geodatabase project. The results of the study provide the real picture of the actual rural settlement framework in Central Russia, highlighting “extinct” rural settlements, zones of rural shrinkage and second home expansion collision. The developed algorithm provides far more accurate results than offical statistics and may be used for similar research in other areas. Research was supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation, grant № 14-18- 00083, “Geography of Recurrent Population Mobility within the Rural–Urban Continuum”.