ИСТИНА

Предлагаемый проект направлен на исследование концептуальных основ, целеполагания, механизмов и региональных особенностей формирования и реализации демографической политики в России за период 2000-2020 гг. с целью разработки предложений по уточнению поставленных целей и совершенствованию мер демографической политики с учетом нового этапа депопуляции и последствий пандемии коронавируса.

Improving the demographic situation and overcoming large-scale depopulation is a priority goal of Russia's national development until 2030. Since 2007, the toolkit of demographic policy measures has been significantly expanded and its funding has been increased. The national project "Demography" has been developed and begun to be implemented. It includes five federal projects, particularly "Financial Assistance to Families upon Birth of Children". Nevertheless, the results of the demographic policy are still quite modest. Moreover, these results have already been affected and will be affected in the near future by the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. Thus, in 2020, apart from the continued decline in the fertility, there was a significant increase in mortality and a decrease in life expectancy. The number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 689,000. Migration growth compensated for the natural population decline by only 15.5%. The population of Russia decreased by more than 582 thousand people in 2020. There are real prospects for the failure to achieve the demographic goals of national development for 2030: achievement of sustainable population growth, increase in life expectancy to 78 years. The presented project aims to investigate the conceptual framework, goal-setting, mechanisms, and regional specifics of the establishment and implementation of the demographic policy in Russia over the period 2000-2020. The project seeks to develop proposals for clarifying the goals set and improving demographic policy measures given the new stage of depopulation and the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. To achieve this goal, we analyze the place of the demographic policy in contemporary social policy; reveal the relationship between social, demographic, and family policies; analyze the structure and content of conceptual documents in the field of demographic policy for the period 2000-2020; assess which problems were solved by the implementation of demographic policy, which objectives of the set were achieved, explain why some of the goals were not achieved, and articulate unsolved problems. We also analyze the relationship between current conceptual and organizational and legal documents that determine the establishment and implementation of the demographic policy, their coherence and inconsistency (the Concept of Demographic Policy of the Russian Federation until 2025, the national project "Demography", the national development goals set in the Presidential Decree No. 474 of July 21, 2020 "On National Development Goals for the Russian Federation until 2030" and strategic documents that determine socio-economic development of the Russian Federation until 2030). Finally, we assess trends and prospects for the demographic development through 2030, taking into account the results of 2020 and preliminary data for 2021, and the achievability of the demographic policy goals and adjusted targets already set in light of national development goals through 2030. It is planned to prepare proposals to clarify the goals and improve the measures of demographic policy based on the results of the project.

По итогам реализации проекта планируется подготовить предложения по уточнению поставленных целей и совершенствованию мер демографической политики.

Несмотря на наличие немалого числа исследований и публикаций по вопросам демографической политики, мало материалов, посвященных собственно фундаментальным вопросам формирования и реализации демографической политики, таким как теоретические основы демографической политики, целеполагание и механизмы реализации, принципы и приоритеты, выбор целевых показателей, экономическое обоснование мер поддержки семей с детьми, оценка достаточности планируемых ресурсов, взаимосвязь отдельных направлений демографической политики, согласование демографической политики с семейной и социальной политикой, критерии оценки результативности и др. Основная часть публикаций затрагивает скорее отдельные направления демографической политики (политика в области рождаемости, миграционная политика), отдельные меры демографической политики (материнский капитал, материнские и семейные пособия), политику в регионах/макрорегионах (Дальний Восток и другие федеральные округа, отдельные субъекты Российской Федерации). Очевидно, что фундаментальных работ, посвящённых анализу отечественных концептуальных и стратегических документов в области народосбережения и демографической политики, по-прежнему не хватает.

Публикации в журналах из Списков ВАК и МГУ