LONG-TERM STATISTICS OF STORMS IN THE BALTIC, BARENTS AND WHITE SEAS AND THEIR FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

Myslenkov, S.; Medvedeva, A.; Arkhipkin, V.; Markina, M.; Surkova, G.; Krylov, A.; Dobrolyubov, S.; Zilitinkevich, S.; Koltermann, P.

Авторы: Myslenkov Stanislav, Medvedeva Alisa, Arkhipkin Victor, Markina Margarita, Surkova Galina, Krylov Aleksey, Dobrolyubov Sergey, Zilitinkevich Sergey, Koltermann Peter
Журнал: Geography, Environment, Sustainability
Том: 11
Номер: 1
Год издания: 2018
Издательство: Издательство Русского географического общества
Местоположение издательства: Москва
Первая страница: 93
Последняя страница: 112
DOI: 10.24057/2071-9388-2018-11-1-93-112
Аннотация: The numerical model simulations of storm activity in the White, Baltic and Barents Seas were analyzed. From 1979 to 2015 the number of storms with diﬀerent Hs threshold was calculated. High interannual variability is observed for all studied seas. The storm conditions in the Barents Sea is signifcantly more severe in comparison with the other considered seas. The storm number with Hs ≥ 2 m in the Baltic is comparable with storm number with Hs ≥ 4 m in the Barents Sea: an average 80 per year. The number of storms in the White Sea is four times lower: ~20 per a year with Hs ≥ 2 m. In the Barents Sea, the lost severe storms have threshold Hs ≥ 10 m, which even doesn’t occur in the Baltic and White Seas. For the Baltic, the considered limit was 5 m (5-7 per a year) and for the White Sea – only 4 m (2-3 per a year). There is no signifcant trend of storm number in the Baltic, Barents and White Seas detected for the entire period. For the Barents and Baltic Seas the variability period about 10–12 years was identifed. In the Baltic and Barents Seas, the small-scale increase of the number of storms was found in 1992−1994 years. It corresponds to the high positive NAO and AO and signifcant negative SCAND values. For the White Sea, the positive NAO phase in contrary corresponds to the decrease of the storm number. On average, the connection with global atmospheric circulation is stronger (R ≥ 0.5) for the Baltic Sea, then for the other two seas. The most pronounced liaison for the Baltic is with SCAND pattern, for the Barents – with AO. The connection with AO index is clearer than with NAO for all three seas. Notably, that for stronger storms with Hs ≥ 4 m in the Baltic the signifcant negative linear trend was identifed. It is interesting that the number of these events is connected with Barents storms with Hs threshold 7 m and correlation between them is 0.56. Also correlation of number of stronger storms in the Barents Sea (Hs ≥ 8, 9 m) and storm number of the White Sea (Hs ≥ 3 m) is signifcant (0.52). It reﬂects the common origin of these events. According to the RCP8.5 scenario, in the second part of the XXI century the number of storm events will rise in the Baltic and Barents Seas.
Добавил в систему: Медведева Алиса Юрьевна

	ИСТИНА	Войти в систему Регистрация
	ИСТИНА ЦЭМИ РАН
	Главная Поиск Статистика О проекте Помощь

ИСТИНА

ИСТИНА ЦЭМИ РАН

LONG-TERM STATISTICS OF STORMS IN THE BALTIC, BARENTS AND WHITE SEAS AND THEIR FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONSстатья Исследовательская статья Электронная публикация

Прикрепленные файлы