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Three-year experience of the fortnight forecast of seismicity in southern California on the basis of geomechanical model and the seismic dataтезисы доклада
- Авторы: Garagash I.A., Bondur V.G., Gokhberg M.B., Steblov G.M.
- Сборник: American Geophysical Union (AGU) 2011 Fall Meeting
- Тезисы
- Год издания: 2011
- Место издания: San Francisco. Calif. USA
- Первая страница: NH23A-1535
- Аннотация: The three-dimensional geomechanical model of Southern California was created, including a mountain relief, fault tectonics and characteristic internal borders such as the roof of the consolidated crust and Moho surface. The initial stress state of the model under action of gravitational forces and the horizontal tectonic movements established on basis of GPS observation is calculated. During last three years in region of Southern California on the basis of the created geomechanic model is realized an approbation of two technologies on the estimation of possible future seismicity on a two weeks interval. The first technology is based on the implementation in geomechanic model of data about the current seismicity under the catalogue USGS and account a new 3D parameter of approaching the earth crust to the strength limit. The model allows to calculate changes of the stress strain state of the earth crust, connected with the development of seismic process. The input data in model is the current seismicity, when each earthquake is considered as a new defect of the earth crust, resulting to redistribution of deformations, density of elastic energy and ultimate stress limit of the earth crust. Three-dimensional distribution of a new parameter - proximity of sites of the earth crust to the strength limit, calculated every two weeks, specifies practically places, where will occur earthquakes with a satisfactory convergence on a given interval of time. The second technology is based on an input in the model of the current information from the GPS catalogue about displacements of the earth surface and ensures similar results.
- Добавил в систему: Гохберг Михаил Борисович