Аннотация:Modeling is used to predict the effects of chemicals at the global or regional level. Several models have been developed that describe the behavior of chemicals in the environment, which are used to assess chemical loads at the country or even entire regions level. For example, the following models are implemented in the form of software packages: CalTox, BETR, USEtox and others.
However, imminent studies and models practically do not evaluate the spatial differentiation of the residence time of chemicals in the subsystems of the environment, which is most significant for the hydrosphere, since there is a directional movement of substances with water masses.
Several authors have shown that taking into account spatial differentiation makes it possible to increase the accuracy of calculations, and its absence often leads to a decrease in the reliability of the estimates obtained. This is due to the difference in orders of life-time of the chemical in different parts of the study area, which is typical, for example, when calculations are made for local systems that are comparable in size to the territories of countries and / or regions.
In this paper, we present an approach to allow for spatial differentiation in the calculation of the chemical load and the chemical trace, which consists in the modification of the USEtox model with the simultaneous use of GIS systems.
The advantage of the method described in this paper is the relative simplicity and speed of the research (creating a model for the distribution of chemicals remotely from the research object). Another advantage is that we can consider the migration and accumulation of chemicals on a global scale, but, taking this into account, there are errors in the calculations, over the elimination of which we are working.