Modeling the scenarios of catastrophic flood on the river of the Northern Dvina

Sazonov, A.A.; Krylenko, I.N.; Amerbaev, A.N.; Zavyalova, E.V.; Semenova, N.K.; Frolova, N.L.

Информация о цитировании статьи получена из Scopus
Статья опубликована в журнале из списка Web of Science и/или Scopus
Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 9 октября 2019 г.

Авторы: Sazonov A.A., Krylenko I.N., Amerbaev A.N., Zavyalova E.V., Semenova N.K., Frolova N.L.
Журнал: IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science
Том: 263
Год издания: 2019
Издательство: IOP Publishing
Местоположение издательства: [Bristol, UK], England
Первая страница: 1
Последняя страница: 8
DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/263/1/012056
Аннотация: Calculation of the maximum possible water discharge is one of the most important applied tasks. Its main feature is a high social and economic responsibility. Currently, the regulatory documents apply extrapolation of the empirical curve to the area of rare frequency, taking into account a guarantee correction. This method is quite reliable in terms of security, but not always economically feasible. One of the possible ways to estimate the maximum discharge for the river under study is to use a stochastic model along with a “weather generator” and a physico-mathematical model for the formation of a runoff. The weather generator is a stochastic model that predicts time series of several interconnected meteorological variables based on the statistical characteristics of the values observed at meteorological stations. This paper assesses the maximum possible water discharge for the Northern Dvina river near the city of Velikiy Ustyug and the worst-case scenario of the flood.
Добавил в систему: Сазонов Алексей Александрович

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Modeling the scenarios of catastrophic flood on the river of the Northern Dvinaстатья

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