Hydrology needed to manage droughts: the 2015 European case

Van Lanen, H.A.; Laaha, G.; Rets, E.; Frolova, N.; Kireeva, M.

Авторы: Van Lanen H.A.J, Laaha G., Rets E., Frolova N., Kireeva M.
Журнал: Hydrological processes
Год издания: 2016
Издательство: John Wiley & Sons Inc.
Местоположение издательства: United States
DOI: 10.1002/hyp.10838
Аннотация: Volume 30, Issue 17 15 August 2016 Pages 3097–3104 As shown for the 2015 European event, drought impacts are largely connected to soil water drought (crop yield, wildfires) or to hydrological drought (water supply, energy, transportation, recreation, water quality) rather than directly to the meteorological drought. This implies that knowledge of hydrology, i.e. the propagation of meteorological drought into a hydrological drought, including the role of antecedent water storage, is needed to understand drought impacts. It is also illustrated that stakeholders and water managers respond to impacts by taking measures (e.g. irrigation, water abstractions, use of reservoir storage, rerouting, transfers, conservation) to mitigate impacts, but which can also enhance impacts elsewhere (Van Dijk et al., 2013; Van Loon et al., 2016). Enhancement of impacts typically involves ecological minimum flows that cannot be sustained because of upstream water use. During droughts there is a high pressure on groundwater resources and in several regions more groundwater is abstracted than recharged (e.g. Castle et al., 2014; Panda and Wahr, 2015), leading to undesirable impacts (e.g. reduced groundwater flow to riparian areas and rivers). However, reports on declining groundwater tables are not everywhere available, or no separation is made between impacts due to the drought itself as compared to abstractions due to increased groundwater exploitation, as advised by Van Loon and Van Lanen (2013).The need for an enhanced hydrological perspective in terms of understanding and managing drought impacts requires urgent action. First, the European water sector should make near-real time hydrological data as readily available as meteorological data (Haylock et al., 2008; Hannah et al., 2011). Currently, large-scale observed flow data become available not earlier than a year after measurement (Global Runoff Data Centre, www.bafg.de/GRDC/EN), which forces experts to resort to simulated flow for pan-European studies (e.g. Gudmundsson and Seneviratne, 2015). Furthermore, drought impacts and response measures (including their success rate) should be archived, for example using the European Drought Impact Inventory (Stahl et al., 2016). Second, multi-monthly and seasonal drought forecasting should be improved beyond the currently available 10 or 14-day forecasted atmospheric indices and soil water anomalies. Some encouraging initiatives at the national scale are ongoing, as reported by the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) community. For example, Prudhomme (2015) presented the first operational forecast system for Great Britain that delivers an outlook of 1 to 3 months for river flow and groundwater levels. Promising results on the forecasted 7-day minimum flow for major German waterways were also shown by Meißner et al. (2015), which are based upon the seasonal correlation between global oceanic and climatic data, soil moisture and low river flow (Ionita et al., 2008; 2015). Third, drought monitoring and forecasting should be embedded in drought policy. Wilhite (2014) provides a template for action, which in Europe could improve the drought chapter in the River Basin Management Plans.Managing drought in a pro-active way requires a concerted action of the hydrological and climatic communities. Such action should include pan-European monitoring of hydro-meteorological variables and multi-monthly and seasonal forecasting of both climatic and hydrological variables. Furthermore, impact assessments and exploration of potential promising measures to reduce impacts (considering context specific conditions at the river basin scale) represent a critical research direction for drought impact mitigation.
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