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First World Aging: Scenario Forecasts of Dependency Ratiosстатья
- Авторы: Zinkina Yu V., Shulgin S.G., Andreev A.I.
- Журнал: Journal of Physics: Conference Series
- Год издания: 2020
- Издательство: IOP Publishing
- Местоположение издательства: [Bristol, UK], England
- DOI: 10.1088/1755-1315/578/1/012062
- Аннотация: Population aging in the first world and its expectedconsequences are actively discussed in the research community. Effects ofaging can be seen in the age structures projected for various countries byUN DESA. However, their «medium» scenario most frequently used byresearchers to understand the effects of aging is based on the national-levelassumptions (their set being rather fixed and limited in number). In thispaper we propose a different approach, where age structures anddependency ratios are projected based on global-level assumptionsimpacting the demographic dynamics of each particular country. As a firstapproximation, this approach gives us 4 scenarios of demographicdynamics associated with: 1) the growth of human capital (in particular, anincrease in the level of education); 2) stagnation of human capital; 3) adecrease in global integration and migration flows; 4) increasedglobalization, increased openness of borders and migration flows.
- Добавил в систему: Андреев Алексей Игоревич