Аннотация:This article presents the results of the first stage of the foresight research
project initiated by the Faculty of Journalism at Lomonosov Moscow State
University. The investigation was based on 49 in-depth semi-structured interviews
with media managers and experts and has revealed that the Russian media system
in the next ten years is unlikely to fundamentally change. According to the findings
of the research the basic business model in Russia in the next ten years will
remain the advertising-driven model. At the same time the level of customization
of media content will rapidly increase. The experts believe that development of
solutions for non-linear consumption of TV content, spread of mobile applications,
hybridization of different types of content will be amongst the most powerful
trends. The majority of interviewed experts confirmed that two factors are likely
to sustain the significant level of uncertainty in the media system of Russia;
firstly, new practices of media consumption, and secondly the probability that the
business model may shift.