PAST AND PROSPECTIVE CHANGES IN THE STATE OF CENTRAL ASIAN GLACIERSстатья
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Дата последнего поиска статьи во внешних источниках: 29 мая 2019 г.
Аннотация:Estimations have been made on areas of glaciers in 1961, 1980, 1991, 2000 and 2020 years in the main tributaries of the Amudarya and Syrdarya river basins, which constitute the major portion of the glacierized area of the Aral Sea Basin in Central Asia. During the time interval 1961-2000 the area of glaciers in these basins decreased by 2860 km2, or 21.8%. By 2020 the area of glaciers in these basins will be 9435 km2, if the current rate of shrinkage continues. Significant shrinkage of the area of Central Asian glacierization corresponds well with similar information for glaciers in other Asian and European regions. Both statistical parameters (mean value, coefficient of variation) and spatial and temporal distribution of glaciers runoff were determined in high flow and low flow water years. Long term series of glaciers runoff were computed by the author’s model REGMOD, which is briefly described here.