Urban Youth and Terrorism: A Quantitative Analysis (Are Youth Bulges Relevant Anymore?)

Авторы: Korotayev Andrey, Romanov Daniil, Zinkina Julia, Slav Maxim
Журнал: Political Studies Review
Год издания: 2022
Издательство: Blackwell
Местоположение издательства: United Kingdom
Первая страница: 147892992210759
DOI: 10.1177/14789299221075908
Аннотация: Both urbanization and a high share of youth (“youth bulge”) have been shown to correlatewith higher levels of political violence, in general, and terrorism, in particular. In this article, wetest the hypothesis that urbanization and general youth bulge (share of aged 15–29 in the adultpopulation) should produce a particularly significant impact on the level of terrorist activity whenacting together due to the interaction effect. Performed negative binomial regressions (both withand without interaction term) support this hypothesis. We also test the impact of “urban youthbulge” (share of urban youth in the total adult population), and it turns out to be a much moresignificant predictor of terrorism than either general youth bulge or urbanization taken separately.This finding is shown to have substantial practical implications, indicating that urban youth bulgesare likely to retain their relevance in the forthcoming decades, in contrast to general youth bulges.
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