Black Carbon Emissions from the Siberian Fires 2019: Modelling of the Atmospheric Transport and Possible Impact on the Radiation Balance in the Arctic Regionстатья
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Аннотация:The work is devoted to the study of the climatic effects of black carbon (BC) transferredfrom forest fires to the Arctic zone. The HYSPLIT (The Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian IntegratedTrajectory model) trajectory model was used to initially assess the potential for particle transportfrom fires. The results of the trajectory analysis of the 2019 fires showed that the probability of thetransfer of particles to the Arctic ranges from 1% to 10%, and in some cases increases to 20%. Detailedstudies of the possible influence of BC ejected as a result of fires became possible by using theclimate model of the INMCM5 (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Climate Model). The results ofthe numerical experiments have shown that the maximum concentration of BC in the Arctic atmosphereis observed in July and August and is associated with emissions from fires. The deposition ofBC in the Arctic increases by about 1.5–2 times in the same months, in comparison with simulationwithout forest fire emissions. This caused an average decrease in solar radiation forcing of 0.3–0.4Wt/m2 and an increase in atmospheric radiation heating of up to 5–6 Wt/m2. To assess the radiationforcing from BC contaminated snow, we used the dependences of the change in the snow albedoon the snow depth, and the albedo of the underlying surface for a given amount of BC fallen on thesnow. These dependences were constructed on the basis of the SNICAR (Snow, Ice, and AerosolRadiative) model. According to our calculations, the direct radiative forcing from BC in the atmospherewith a clear sky is a maximum of 4–5 W/m2 in July and August.