Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments

Bertola, M.; Blöschl, G.; Bohac, M.; Borga, M.; Castellarin, A.; Chirico, G.B.; Claps, P.; Dallan, E.; Danilovich, I.; Ganora, D.; Gorbachova, L.; Ledvinka, O.; Mavrova-Guirguinova, M.; Montanari, A.; Ovcharuk, V.; Viglione, A.; Volpi, E.; Arheimer, B.; Aronica, G.T.; Bonacci, O.; Čanjevac, I.; Csik, A.; Frolova, N.; Gnandt, B.; Gribovszki, Z.; Gül, A.; Günther, K.; Guse, B.; Hannaford, J.; Harrigan, S.; Kireeva, M.; Kohnová, S.; Komma, J.; Kriauciuniene, J.; Kronvang, B.; Lawrence, D.; Lüdtke, S.; Mediero, L.; Merz, B.; Molnar, P.; Murphy, C.; Oskoruš, D.; Osuch, M.; Parajka, J.; Pfister, L.; Radevski, I.; Sauquet, E.; Schröter, K.; Šraj, M.; Szolgay, J.; Turner, S.; Valent, P.; Veijalainen, N.; Ward, P.J.; Willems, P.; Zivkovic, N.

Авторы: Bertola Miriam, Blöschl Günter, Bohac Milon, Borga Marco, Castellarin Attilio, Chirico Giovanni B., Claps Pierluigi, Dallan Eleonora, Danilovich Irina, Ganora Daniele, Gorbachova Liudmyla, Ledvinka Ondrej, Mavrova-Guirguinova Maria, Montanari Alberto, Ovcharuk Valeriya, Viglione Alberto, Volpi Elena, Arheimer Berit, Aronica Giuseppe Tito, Bonacci Ognjen, Čanjevac Ivan, Csik Andras, Frolova Natalia, Gnandt Boglarka, Gribovszki Zoltan, Gül Ali, Günther Knut, Guse Björn, Hannaford Jamie, Harrigan Shaun, Kireeva Maria, Kohnová Silvia, Komma Jürgen, Kriauciuniene Jurate, Kronvang Brian, Lawrence Deborah, Lüdtke Stefan, Mediero Luis, Merz Bruno, Molnar Peter, Murphy Conor, Oskoruš Dijana, Osuch Marzena, Parajka Juraj, Pfister Laurent, Radevski Ivan, Sauquet Eric, Schröter Kai, Šraj Mojca, Szolgay Jan, Turner Stephen, Valent Peter, Veijalainen Noora, Ward Philip J., Willems Patrick, Zivkovic Nenad
Журнал: Nature Geoscience
Год издания: 2023
Издательство: Nature Publishing Group
Местоположение издательства: United Kingdom
DOI: 10.1038/s41561-023-01300-5
Аннотация: Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8,000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places in Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods in other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.
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Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchmentsстатья

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