Climate change projections in the Black Sea region based on CMIP5 model ensemble

Arzhanov, M.M.; Semenov, V.A.; Mokhov, I.I.; Polonsky, A.B.; Repina, I.A.

Авторы: Arzhanov M.M., Semenov V.A., Mokhov I.I., Polonsky A.B., Repina I.A.
Сборник: Research activities in atmospheric and oceanic modelling
Том: 43
Год издания: 2013
Первая страница: 5
Последняя страница: 6
Аннотация: Estimates of the future climate changes in the Black Sea region are of particular importance in light of rapidly developing infrastructure. 2014 Sochi Olympic Games, growing marine transportation, possible gas and oil exploration on the sea shelf: all these require an implemention of the growing factor of the global climate change in building strategies for social-economic development in the region. Previously, data of CMIP3 models have been used for analysis of temperature variability in the Black Sea region [1]. Here, we present some results of the analysis of anthropogenic climate change simulations for the 21st century using CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) model ensemble [2]. Some models were excluded from the analysis because they provide data only untill 2035. Before processing, all models data were interpolated on the same 1.0ox1.0o grid. Monthly mean data for the 21st century simulations performed under moderate anthropogenic scenario RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways, experiment rcp45, implying 4.5W/m2 radiative forcing to the end of the 21st century) [3] were used for the analysis. Annual and seasonal changes of temperature and precipitation have been analyzed. Due to space limitation, here we present in broad strokes only the annual means. Changes for annual mean surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation averaged for the selected model ensemble in the Black Sea region (24-48W, 40-50N) for 2006-2100 are shown in Fig. 1. In this region the yearly mean air temperature increase amounts from 1.9o C to 2.5o C. The largest SAT increase by 2.6oC for the selected scenario is obtained in the north-eastern and south-eastern area of this region, whereas relatively moderate increase in temperature (about 1.9-2.2oC) is found in the central part of the Black Sea region (Fig. 1a) presumably due to larger thermal inertia of the Black Sea surface layer.
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Climate change projections in the Black Sea region based on CMIP5 model ensembleстатья

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