ИСТИНА

The ongoing crisis in Ukraine has deepened the divide between the United States and its partners on one side and Russia and China on the other. If this trend continues, it could make any multilateral cooperation on North Korea’s nuclear armament challenge that involves Washington, Beijing and Moscow politically untenable. Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK, also referred to as North Korea) has blamed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on the west’s “hegemonic policy” and “high-handedness.” The DPRK likely views Ukraine’s situation as justification for its nuclear program and ballistic missile programs. Recent activities at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site suggest that Pyongyang is preparing for a 7th nuclear weapons test in the near future. In the meantime, North Korea's border closure in response to the Covid-19 pandemic has created economic hardship for ordinary North Koreans, which could encourage Kim Jong Un to use nuclear tests as a distraction from internal problems. Coupled with international sanctions, North Korea could face a serious humanitarian crisis and food shortages, which could harden public opinion against the U.S./west. Given these developments, the United States should adjust its diplomatic strategy toward North Korea so as to minimize the secondary-order impact that the Ukraine crisis will have on the future of multilateral cooperation toward North Korea’s disarmament. Recent statements from Chinese and Russian diplomats suggest that high-level commitment by the U.S. to adopt a more flexible North Korea strategy will be welcomed